Thursday, August 29, 2013

2013 Fantasy Terrible Television Draft Analysis Part I

Last month we created the latest sensation in Fall Fantasy games of skill, with the objective of identifying the most futile of television offerings.

Six of us spend the last four weeks drafting from new and returning shows, trading draft picks and discussing the viability of late round picks such as The Millers and Once Upon A Time In Wonderland.

Every fantasy sport needs a Matthew Berry Fantasy Draft Analyst and so I will now review the key criteria to analyze while identifying the least successful shows that will air this Fall. We will start with the most important criteria and finish with the least important.

1. The Eye Test

The most important criteria in selecting a top draft pick in Fantasy Terrible Television is quite simply the most subjective. Some of the best research one can do is to spend an hour on Youtube watching three minute promos of new series.

The downside to this criteria if you fail to evaluate a show for its intended audience. I'm don't pay attention to many crime dramas but a show like Ironside (NBC) could turn out to successfully hit a spectrum of viewers that love it. On the other side  of the ball a show like The Goldbergs (ABC) looks so bad I traded up from 6th overall to 3rd just to grab it.  I just don't think anyone wants to revisit the 80's in a goofy sitcom. Case closed.

Bad Quarterback League Equivalent: Mark Sanchez (NYJ)

2013 FTT Strong Picks: 
The Goldbergs (ABC), Sean Saves The World (NBC), Dads (FOX)

2013 FTT Weak Picks:
The Blacklist (NBC), Ironside (NBC), Any Returning Hit Show

2. Longevity

The second most important criteria is how long a show has been on air. This seems clear as there is a strong correlation between number of seasons on the air and series renewal.

What this means for FTT of course is that new series are a goldmine for draft talent. This mindset is emboldened by the knowledge that in recent years 65% of new shows have been cancelled after one season.

It makes sense that 32 of the 42 draft picks selected this year in the LudiBerkeley FTT draft were premiering for the 2013 season.

Bad Quarterback League Equivalent: Geno Smith (NYJ)

2013 FTT Strong Picks: 
Welcome To The Family (NBC), Growing Up Fisher (NBC)

2013 FTT Weak Picks:
Any Returning Hit Show

3. Early Reviews

Seth MacFarlane seems to have run out of sitcoms to mock for Family Guy and created more material with his new sitcom Dads (FOX). The show has been crucified by the critics.

Of course in some cases there is no such thing as bad press. Television often isn't the right industry to use this justification.

Bad Quarterback League Equivalent: Geno Smith (NYJ)

2013 FTT Strong Picks: 
Dads (FOX)

2013 FTT Weak Picks:
None that I can find

4. Promotion

If a network fails to spend adequate time to promote a new show it may as well go ahead and start digging a spot in its network graveyard.

I have no idea what this is but I drafted it in the second round.

Bad Quarterback League Equivalent: Jeff Tuel (BUF)

2013 FTT Strong Picks: 
Super Fun Night (ABC)

2013 FTT Weak Picks:
The Blacklist (NBC)

5. Network

To reiterate the startling statistic from our second criteria, Longevity, 65% of new shows are gone after one season. NBC leads the way with nearly three out of four failing to achieve a second season. FOX even elects to cancel shows for no good reason. Not that I hold a grudge or anything.

On the other end of the network power struggle is annual top network CBS which seems to always finds its audience for every show in its lineup. It seemingly cancels a series every year that garners ratings everyone wishes they could have. That's the power of demographics.

Bad Quarterback League Equivalent: Matt Flynn (OAK), Terrell Pryor (OAK), Any QB for the Raiders since Rich Gannon.

2013 FTT Strong Picks: 

2013 FTT Weak Picks:

Part II Continued Here...